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A Peak Under The Hood will be dedicated to providing unique insights into macro topics happening around the world and how these topics may affect financial markets. We will try to provide an entertaining, but informative blog, on subjects ranging from Real Estate, Mortgage Markets, Commodities, Major Stock Indexes, Bonds, and Select Trading Ideas. Our site will contain original posts, charts and also include opinions from outside investors and reporters who furnish original thoughts. We will attempt to dig deeper than what can be found on major network financial news outlets and it is our hope that you will continue to visit the site as we provide intelligent analysis that may be counter intuitive to mainstream ideas.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Catfish. Wizzie’s New Hat?

Ain’t nuttin in dis world like some fresh catfish, deep fried!  Nuttin!
Which is the better Catch?

Catfish are bottom feeders.  Almost all catfish are negatively buoyant—meaning they sink rather than they float.  Catfish suck the life out of their prey to kill them and most of the largest, nastiest bottom-feeding catfish are located in the United States, but the largest is in Asia. 
Catfish = Banks:  Bottom feedings, life-suckers that sink to the bottom of your portfolio. 

Financials look to have a short life in this rally—if they can break through the downtrend line and the horizontal the upside is still muted at best.  If not, the financials stop dead in their tracks here and slowly float sideways and down.  Not a very good call for the economy—when the banks fall, the economy follows—when this happens EVERYONE gets fried and the real bottom sucking begins.  There will likely be some volatile swings, but remember the old cliché—if you play with fire, you end up with a bunch of negatively buoyant garbage that keeps sinking lower and lower and sucks the life out of your portfolio… essentially, you get corn-breaded and fried- you get catfished.
Wizard Speak 2.0.  The new hat theory. 
Today’s minutes from the last fed meeting were released and more nonsensical ramblings from the ‘experts’ that deliver the data to the internet masses. 
The options with the most support were more asset purchases and increasing the maturity of the Fed’s balance sheet. A “few” favored cutting the interest on excess reserves the Fed pays to banks. The Fed will discuss these options at its two-day meeting on Sept. 20-21.
I have a hard time understanding the ‘several tools’ that the headline suggests…
They might as well have come out and said that the Master Wizard of Fed Narnia, The Great Ben Wizzie, has a new magic hat that will save the economy. 
He then could have pranced around his minions in his new hat, showing the shiny sequins and chuckling over a glass of Merlot.
                ‘A New hat!” a poor boy would say, smiling, while pushing through the crowds of peasant onlookers as he runs to find and tell his parents.  “He has a new hat!  A new hat!  We are all saved!!!”
This reliance on the Federal Reserve to save the economy with monetary fed magic is just foolish.  The feds cannot:
1)      Create jobs with monetary stimulus
2)      Stop housing prices from falling with monetary stimulus
3)      Create confidence with monetary stimulus
4)      Reduce debt levels with monetary stimulus
I’m sure Wizzie will be sporting his ‘new hat’ at the next wizard conference in Sept. 
But remember, new hat or not, this is the same old Fed (up economy!). 

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