A Peak Under The Hood will be dedicated to providing unique insights into macro topics happening around the world and how these topics may affect financial markets. We will try to provide an entertaining, but informative blog, on subjects ranging from Real Estate, Mortgage Markets, Commodities, Major Stock Indexes, Bonds, and Select Trading Ideas. Our site will contain original posts, charts and also include opinions from outside investors and reporters who furnish original thoughts. We will attempt to dig deeper than what can be found on major network financial news outlets and it is our hope that you will continue to visit the site as we provide intelligent analysis that may be counter intuitive to mainstream ideas.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011


Credit buying is much like being drunk. The buzz happens immediately and gives you a lift... The hangover comes the day after. - Dr. Joyce Brothers.

The above is a famous quote by a famous radio host and psychologist.

If you have ever been really hungover-- I mean drunk out of your mind, trashed without pants on and singing Journey's Don't Stop Believing at 3am in an elevator full of Mexican immigrants who have nicknamed you the 'loco gringo,' hungover.    If you have been that hungover you have probably learned one thing:  You NEVER want to be that hungover again!!!

Here is the U.S., we have failed to learn that lesson.  The hangover from the great recession has now been wiped away from our memories and we are again pounding the hard stuff with reckless disregard for the outcome, which will be harsh.  Guessing the exact Monday that the hangover hits is impossible, however I think it will be in June.  

Ain't No Dollar Bounce Back Girl!  

Greenbacks look to be pausing from their recent punishing decent.  We are hovering right above the 2008 lows.  While this may be a pause before one final collapse, the most important thing to notice is the intensity and speed of the bounce back from the 2008 lows.  I anticipate the hangover will create a very similar effect this time around.  

Strong Bond the Long Bond

There was more rubbish today about China selling treasuries and the debt ceiling signaling the death of bonds, but long bonds have been strengthening in the last two weeks and look to have bottomed.  TLT looks to have bottomed near 90 and has strong support at this level as well.  While the fun-employment numbers later this week may be a set-back for TLT, bonds are firming at these levels.  With QEII ending I would not be surprised for TLT to make another accent to triple digits. 

Silver Lining?

Silver is getting crushed over the last two days-- is this a true Sell in May scenario or a head-fake on the way to $60? 

Insiders Tell the Truth.

Please take the time to visit http://www.j3sg.com/.  They offer FREE information on insider trading.  Today's volume on insider selling to insider buying will BLOW YOUR MIND.  There are massive amounts of money being pulled off the table daily while hardly any inside money is being reinvested into the market.  I don't need to be a wizard to know what this means. 

The buzz from QEII will wane soon, but there is probably one or two more jolts of tequila left in this drunk market before everyone passes out from exhaustion. 

Drink Up! 

No comments:

Post a Comment