Mission

A Peak Under The Hood will be dedicated to providing unique insights into macro topics happening around the world and how these topics may affect financial markets. We will try to provide an entertaining, but informative blog, on subjects ranging from Real Estate, Mortgage Markets, Commodities, Major Stock Indexes, Bonds, and Select Trading Ideas. Our site will contain original posts, charts and also include opinions from outside investors and reporters who furnish original thoughts. We will attempt to dig deeper than what can be found on major network financial news outlets and it is our hope that you will continue to visit the site as we provide intelligent analysis that may be counter intuitive to mainstream ideas.
Showing posts with label Jobs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jobs. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

American Idiots and Fortune Cookies

Angel Dust Nonsense…
Another day in the world of make believe that even Willie Wonka would have thought was just plain silly.  Our American Idiots, self proclaimed market wizard-pimps, Ben Wizzie and Alan Greenspan are at it again—moving mountains with their words… or at least trying to.
  Ben Wizzie is out of bullets.  If he had a six-shooter he has shoot his entire round but he is still threatening with the same pistol.  If you didn’t know that he had already shot his bullets you could be afraid of being shot, but knowing he is out of ammo, the worst he could do was bludger you with the handle of the pistol.  If the QEII silver bullet did nothing but pimp the Russell 2000 higher, I doubt a bludgering of QeTHRee will do much to help the real economy. 
Still, like I said, Wizzie is pointing the pistol:  Bernanke Speaks and the Market Shoots up.  Has it really been 2 weeks since QE2 ended?  Wow—time flies when there is no stimulus. 
The pimping parade of QeTHRee lasted about 7 hours today, but faded quickly at the end of the afternoon when people awoke from their pixie/angel-dusted voyage to Fed Narnia and were disappointed to learn that wizards, while funny and interesting to 9-year-olds, are not real.   Bernanke can keep pulling rabbits out of his hat, but pretty soon people are going to expect something more than running the printing press non-stop. 
Is QeTHRee coming tomorrow?  Nope… but it is coming.  Just be ready.
FOOT-IN-MOUTH Diseased Debt
A little story that slid under the cracks today was another from Ben Wizzie-- Cat is out of the bag.
Ahem, from the article:  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said if Washington failed to raise the U.S. borrowing limit in time, the United States would pay creditors first and stop benefits such as payments under the Social Security retirement program.
He might as well have said that he would kill the women and children first.  I take 4 things from this:
1)      I am now 100% sure I will not have social security by the time I retire, &
2)      Bernanke’s speech writer must have been smoking crack all night to give the master wizard the A-Ok on this one, &
3)      There is a better chance of winning Powerball 3 times in a single month than the U.S. getting the debt issues resolved by Aug. 2nd, &
4)      QeTHRee is a sure thing—as sure as Monday following Sunday.
There is nothing more awesome that admitting you are not going to pay social security starting in August.  Nothing.  Nada.  That is freeking unbelievable.  Dude is a pimp for sure.  I bet all the residents of Arizona would be in uproars if they were not all napping before bingo and ‘tastes like chicken’ night! 
Here’s a fun one:  How does Obama get re-elected if he doesn’t pay people social security?  Sarah Palin could admit she was a hooker with AIDS who slept with Tiger Woods and get into office if the Social Security checks don’t go out—Even if Obama killed Bin Laden.  No pay = No Prez. 
Old Guys Rule 
It is hard to say whether Alan Greenspan or Ben Wizzie is more of an enabler in the demise of America, but Greenspan is starting to show his age:  Greenspan says young people are stupid.
"Baby boomers are being replaced by groups of young workers who have regrettably scored rather poorly in international educational match-ups over the last two decades. The average income of U.S. households headed by 25-year-olds and younger has been declining relative to the average income of the baby boomer population. This is a reasonably good indication that the productivity of the younger part of our workforce is declining relative to the level of productivity achieved by the retiring baby boomers. This raises some major concerns about the productive skills of our future U.S. labor force."
There is some truth to this, but Greenspan failed to speak up about this topic when he was pimping the housing market into the ultimate bubble.  My grandpa said the same thing about my parents and my parents will say the same thing about my generation.  Maybe one day down the road there will be emphasis on education instead of profits for fast food and oil companies, but there isn’t a chance in hell of this happening with the likes of Greenspan and Bernanke around—heck, Bernanke pimps the S&P. 
Touce Mr. Greenspan— someone change that man’s bedpan before bingo and ‘tastes like chicken’ night!
Fortune Cookies
We are in the middle of some interesting times with this economy.  Main Street is screaming for help in the housing and labor markets and the wizards are trying to figure out some way to keep oil above $100 while not killing profits at J.C. Penny.  Doesn’t really sound like the ‘Land of Opportunity’ to me. 
Ultimately though, magicians have to end their show and face their audience and bow for their performance.  That is all it is—an act.  How long can this act last?  Hard to call an end date, but it sure feels like we are closer to the end than the beginning.  Sure feels like nothing has changed—other than my house being worth less and my food costing a hell of a lot more—since 2008. 
So put your faith in the Feds, or the president, or the Wave theory, or by squeezing the magical goat’s balls to tell you the future of the markets.  Me—I now take my advice on the economy from Fortune Cookies.  They seem to be about as reliable as CNBC and Marketwatch and I get to eat sushi before a fortune cookie.  Funny though—they have all said the same thing lately…

Could be worse though—I could be ‘expecting’ my $763 Social Security check on August 4th! 
Cheers!   

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Gallop Data and Charile Sheen for the American Working Man

I still think the unemployment numbers published by the government are skewed. 

Gallop released their data today before BLS tomorrow: 

Gallop says unemployment is at 10.3% and back at the same level as Feb 2010.

This does not show a job market that is improving... 

Who is right?

Who is wrong?

See the whole Gallop release here:  Gallop Feb 2011.  From the findings:
There is essentially no difference between the unemployment rate now and the one at this time a year ago; January's rate, in contrast, showed a 1.1-percentage-point year-over-year improvement. This suggests that the real U.S. jobs situation worsened in February. That is, jobs are relatively less available now than in January.
They see underemployment at 19.9%... ouch. 
Is Gallop any more reliable than the BLS? 

The gloves come off at 8am EST time tomorrow on this debate.

In other news, is Charlie Sheen the new advocate for the working man?

I'd say HELL YES HE IS:  Enjoy

 
Sheen and American workers want the same thing:  A raise and to be thought of as special. 

Sheen is, however, a 'Total Bitchin' Rockstar from Mars..."

I hope this guy's saga lasts longer than the markets topping process!  I could watch these videos all day!

RandR



Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Un(der) Employment Data

I don't know which is a bigger news event this week-- Ben Wizzie, the Wizard's Fed-speak mumbo jumbo about QE2 MUCH maybe being QE2 little, or the Friday Jobs report.  

I think ADP is about as reliable as Charlie Sheen's publicist at this point-- don't trust anything they say.

I say jobs is a bigger deal than the printing press wizard.

Before the jobs data hits Friday, here are some things to ponder:

The civilian labor force is at a 25 year low.  
People who drop out of the labor force because they give up are not counted in the unemployment rate.

 Persons who have given up due to a crappy jobs market have JUMPED 34% in the last year.  
This is a slippery slope that is not improving.




It's all smoke and mirrors on jobs-- no recovery.  Housing boom jobs will never return and I do not see the catalyst for the next jobs boom.  Maybe GM will hire everyone to make the Make Believe Car of the Future, the Chevy Volt (a $45,000 Cobalt).  Maybe Facebook will add 20% more employees-- that's a cool 200 jobs.  Maybe aliens will arrive from make believe planet Gorp and bring a new Alien industry.

Maybe we will never get back to the job participation rates we saw in the 90's and 2000's-- that is my guess. Baby Boomers will most likely say Phuket Thailand is a better place to retire opposed to working their late 60's as a clerk at the local Kroger.

In my personal opinion, jobs are going to get slashed further in 2011 as companies have to raise prices or lay-off employees-- Thanks to Bernanke et al's QE2 MUCH & QE3, QE4.  I say they fire people as they know that raising prices may fail, and if that happens they have to fire people regardless.  No reason to take a loss in the interim.

Can stocks continue to run if jobs start to fall again?

Not if energy costs keep rising and not if the green back keeps falling.

Jobless Recovery?
It depends on how you look at the numbers. 

Websites used in this data are from the US Bureau and Labor Statistics-- Enjoy:  http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat1.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat35.pdf