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Monday, April 4, 2011

Politics vs Wall Street = Consumers + This Sucks

Obama announces his 2012 campaign for president.  Is this the changing of the guard from Wall Street to Main Street.  What will win more votes?  More jobs, higher equity prices or cheaper costs on gas and groceries?  The Feds money printing machine vs Obama's shaking hands and kissing babies grassroots campaign begins NOW! 

Yee Haw!  It's poly-tickin' season again!  Whoo hoo! 

For all of those that enjoy news that isn't news what-so-ever, President Obama announced his plans for reelection in 2012.  Obama 2012.

Other things that happened today that were of equal newsworthiness:  The sun rose in the east.  A bus in Queens ran 14 minutes late due to construction.  Someone's alarm clock was mistreated due to a case of the Mondays.  Judge Judy reruns were enjoyed by a gaggle of the unemployed.  Erin Burnett looked mousey and not sexy on CNBC (this is common on Mondays though she improves during the week, in my opinion).

There isn't a single news site that was surprised by Obama announcing his re-election.  That alone is not news.

One of the real news stories of the day came from Chicago Fed President, and active FOMC voting member, Charles Evans.  Evans, on a CNBC video in full disclosure, called an end to QE after the $600 Billion QE2 is finished.  This is a big about face from his previous stance on the QE programs.  Evans has come full circle in the last 90 days on his QE stance. 


Evans is stepping away from the printing press:
Evans said while he had thought the economy would need more support when the second round of “quantitative easing” was first launched, he now believes $600 billion is “quite likely the right number.” The program is slated to end this June.
Evans has become a wild card for the Fed today, despite him being a big player in the QEFOREVER talk less than a yea ago.  It should be noted that Evans is still on the side of being accommodate towards monetary policy, which in my mind means the door is open to more QE if the wheels fall off the bus in July.

Evans says no more + Bernanke says more + Prime Time press conferences
= American public * WTF + This sucks

Obama is not a Wizard

Bernanke is still running the show.  His week is very busy, as he speaks tonight in Atlanta and releases the FOMC March minutes on Wednesday at 2pm.  This is a critical week for Bernanke.  Not only is he in prime time and speaking twice, but his choice words this week will be critical in 'controlling inflation' to the American public.

Bernanke's biggest challenge this week is being able to convince the world with enough wizard speak that all is good in the U.S.A., that inflation is tame and that QE2 will end on time. but not be an issue for the economy.  If he fails to portray these messages, the gloves come off on Thursday as the ECB and the Bank of England are expected to raise rates to combat inflation. 

Europe raising + Feds printing money and no tightening = Dollar beyaaatch slap fest

As for Europe, their cost increases are out of control.  It is time for Europe to give it all they have got to slow down the price increases.  Brent closed at over $121/ barrel today-- getting VERY close to the 2008 peak of $144 for Brent.  Look at some of the European gas prices as of March 2011.  Story here:  Gas prices around the world.

Obama is not a wizard-- He has no Fedspeak powers of monetary pimping magic. This has become apparent over the last year.  Obama's best move so far in his presidency has been to step aside and let Ben Wizzie take the center stage and pimp the S&P higher and higher. 

While this has helped Wall Street, Main Street is still struggling in the grapples of persistent unemployment, no wage growth and sky-rocketing prices for food and energy.  The only difference between the US and Europe is that Europe has admitted it has a problem.   

Unfortunately for Obama, Main Street and Wall Street are much different customers in regards to a re-election campaign.  Will he be able to take back the reigns or is he in for a wild ride on the monetary express?  

(American Voters*High gas) + No wage growth - No Cash for Coach Handbags = This Sucks 

...It is time to focus on Main Street... Or is it?

Election day is still a long way off... or is it.  For the Dems, losing the election would be the equivalent to falling on a garden rake and ripping open your butt-hole, and finding out someone video taped it and sent it in to American's Funniest Videos.  The kicker-- you get 2nd place to a 3-legged talking dog.  In essence you get your ass torn open in front of the world and you are still a loser.

So what is the correct algebraic formula for politics and the market right now? 

I know Wall Street wants higher equity prices.

I know Main Street wants jobs...  Good jobs that is-- Fortune 500 companies, benefits, good hours and all the free French Fries one can handle (up to 2 orders per shift that is).  McDonalds to Hire 50K. 

McDonald's?!?  Well Mr. Executive, the average pay is $8.30 an hour... which is JUST SLIGHTLY under that unemployment check that you are getting for another 99 weeks. 

The only difference-- if you are on unemployment you don't have to work at McDonald's! 

So get your fat asses back to work America! 

Unemployment line + Job + Job = Job at McDonald's = This... Really... Sucks.

Is this as good as it gets?  Are these the jobs that are being 'created?' 

At least Wendy's has the Frostie...

Mr. Obama, YOU have a long road ahead of you. 

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